To Peak Oil, or not To Peak Oil

TECHNICAL SCOOP
To Peak Oil, or not To Peak Oil

David Chapman of Union Securities Ltd.
www.davidchapman.com

September 28th, 2006
We have been struck by the number of bearish reports and comments emanating from analysts, fund managers and assorted pundits with regard to oil, gas and other commodities. Just prior to the release of the FOMC statement on September 19, we heard a well-respected Chicago floor trader gush about how the oil bubble had burst, and how the Fed wouldn’t need to hike interest rates any further. Hearing that, we were tempted to rush out and trade in our 35 miles per gallon Honda for a gas-guzzling SUV as we watched prices at the pump plummet.

Of course we wouldn’t buy an SUV, but hearing statements like that makes you wonder what all the talk of peak oil has been about over the years.

Right on the heels of that came the Amaranth Advisors collapse. This hedge fund had directed 56 percent of its capital into energy investments and was on the verge of announcing a new energy fund. Amaranth is estimated to have lost US$6 billion, cutting its value by more than half. The company has been mentioned in the same breath as Long Term Capital Management (LTCM), the hedge fund that collapsed at the height of the Russian/Asian crisis. Curiously, that 1998 collapse was also at the bottom of the energy market. Will lightning strike twice? Does the collapse of Amaranth signal not the end of the energy bull, but the start of the next major move up?

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